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Almost 80% of current freight orders received for peak season are for mid-range price items, the survey shows. Similar to last year, respondents expect less consumer appetite for luxury and aspirational luxury items imported. The world's second-largest ocean freight company, Maersk, recently told CNBC it expected a "normal" peak season. "There's nothing that indicates that it would be a slower peak season or a bigger peak season," said Charles Van der Steene, president of Maersk North America, in a recent interview with CNBC. "We believe in normalized peak season.
Persons: Eric Thayer, Robinson, Kuehne, Nagel, Noah Hoffman, Hoffman, hypersensitive, Charles Van der Steene, We've, John David Rainey, Rainey, Larry, Jon Gold, Nate Herman, Biden Organizations: US, Bureau, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Chain Survey, National Retail Federation, American Apparel and Footwear Association, United National Consumer Suppliers, ITS Logistics, DHL, Uber Technologies, C.H, Maersk, Walmart, Uber, International Longshoremen's Association, ILA, United States Maritime Alliance, Brands Locations: of Los Angeles, Los Angeles , California, U.S, Panama, Maersk North America, East Coast, Gulf, East, North America, West, Coast
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, produced by S&P Global and GEP, tracks supply chain orders which show rising spare supplier capacity as a result of a pullback in global demand. As President Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco, the Asian manufacturing sector is experiencing a slowdown not seen since the 2020 peak of the Covid pandemic. The GEP index shows a depressed level of demand for raw materials, components, and commodities since manufacturing orders are down. A negative meeting would signal that firms may need to act faster to get in front of an evolving and changing U.S.-China relationship by adjusting their supply chain strategies." The NRF continues to call on the Biden Administration to restart a dialogue with China about the tariffs and ultimately remove them.
Persons: Biden, Xi Jinping, John Piatek, Piatek, Xi, Jon Gold Organizations: P, GEP's, International Monetary Fund, CNBC, Chain Survey, GEP, U.S, Biden, China, National Retail Federation, Biden Administration Locations: U.S, San Francisco, China, North America
watch nowThe global shipping industry has been mired in a freight recession this year and the challenging economic conditions will continue into 2024, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey. The CNBC Supply Chain Survey was conducted October 21-October 31 among logistics executives who manage freight manufacturing orders and transportation, including those at C.H. "Without more freight moving, 2024, and potentially 2025, will continue to see soft pricing as capacity outstrips demand," he said. Freight trucking will remain soft Trucking companies get paid per load, and low expectations for orders imply potentially lower revenue this holiday season. A slightly better second half 2024 outlook The survey shows expectations for a slight turnaround in freight volume in the second half of 2024.
Persons: Robinson, Kuehne, Nagel, Zhang Jingang, Alan Baer, Noah Hoffman, Jeff Bezos, Uber, Tim Robertson, Robertson, Brian Bourke Organizations: CNBC Supply Chain Survey, CNBC, Chain Survey, SEKO Logistics, DHL Global, USA, ITS Logistics, Getty, Logistics, C.H, Surface Transportation, Convoy, Tank Transport Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China
The worldwide freight recession will continue in 2024
  + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe worldwide freight recession will continue in 2024The freight sector has seen plummeting container prices and a wave of trucking bankruptcies. In 2024, the situation may improve, but only a little, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey. CNBC's Lori Ann Larocco reports.
Persons: CNBC's Lori Ann Larocco Organizations: CNBC Supply Chain Survey
Photographer: Christopher Dilts/Bloomberg via Getty Images Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAs holiday shopping season begins, lack of big orders from retailers is the rule amid fears that consumer spending will be weak, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey. At the CNBC Evolve Global Summit last Thursday, Target CEO Brian Cornell said the company is doubling down on its cautious outlook for the holiday season. The CNBC Supply Chain Survey was conducted October 21-October 31 among logistics executives who manage freight manufacturing orders and transportation, including those at C.H. Lunar New Year and order volumes The CNBC Supply Chain Survey underscores an overall climate of uncertainty that is defining the market right now. The freight trucking recession Trucking companies get paid per load, and the low expectations for orders imply potentially lower revenue this holiday season.
Persons: Christopher Dilts, Robinson, Noah Hoffman, Hoffman, Jeremy Barnum, Brian Cornell, Raj Subramaniam, restocking, Kuehne, Nagel, Paul Brashier, Tim Robertson, Robertson, Brian Bourke, Elmer Buchta, Jeff Bezos, Uber, Brashier, Berkshire Hathaway, Alan Baer Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC Supply Chain Survey, North American Surface Transportation, CNBC, Global, FedEx, Chain Survey, SEKO Logistics, USA, ITS Logistics, Amazon, Maersk, Logistics, Convoy, Tank Transport, U.S ., Union Pacific, BNSF, Norfolk Southern, CSX Locations: Chicago , Illinois, C.H, U.S, China, United States, Montana, Indiana, Panama, West Coast, U.S . West Coast, Los Angeles, Berkshire, West, East Coast
PANAMA CITY, PANAMA - SEPTEMBER 22: The container ship Maersk Bogor is guided by a tugboat as it prepares to enter the Miraflores locks while transiting the Panama Canal on September 22, 2023 in Panama City, Panama. The Panama Canal Authority is continuing to restrict the number of vessels that pass through the Panama Canal locks as drought has caused water levels at Gatun Lake to drop. Over one hundred ships are waiting to transit the canal and the backup could delay goods heading to the United States for the holiday season. The Panama Canal is popular for East Coast trade because it is faster than other options. Traveling through the Panama Canal takes only 35 days.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Adil Ashiq, Alan Baer, Baer, Jon Davis, Davis, Ashiq, Paul Brashier Organizations: PANAMA CITY, The Panama Canal, Port, CNBC Supply Chain, Panama Canal Authority, East, Panama Canal, MarineTraffic, USA, CNBC, U.S, ITS Logistics Locations: PANAMA, Bogor, Miraflores, Panama, Panama City, The Panama, Colon, Caribbean, United States, Cape Horn, South America, East, Charleston, El Nino, East Coast, Shenzhen, China, Miami , Florida, Suez, North America, U.S, West Coast, Asia, Gulf
Giant gantry cranes and tracks in a container port, viewed from a moored cruise ship in Ashdod, Israel. The moves to evade detection come as shipping lines are also being advised to wait further offshore with rocket attacks reported at the ports of Ashdod and Eilat in Israel. Israel has closed the Port of Ashkelon, the country's biggest oil-importing port, because of rocket attacks. "This suggests that container lines are avoiding the Port of Ashdod, and potentially relying more on the Port of Haifa instead," Woitzik said. The ports of Ashdod and Haifa are the key ports for food imports.
Persons: There's, Homayoun Falakshahi, Ambrey, Falakshahi, Port, Mirko Woitzik, Woitzik, majeure Organizations: Getty, AIS, Israel, CNBC, tanker Sea Galaxy, Port, ICL Group, ICL, Rockets, Army, Evergreen Locations: Ashdod, Israel, Eilat, Port, Port of Haifa, Ashkelon, Haifa, Kpler, Gaza, Suez, Aqaba
Amazon is hosting a second Prime Day-like sales bonanza in October, the company announced Tuesday, seeking to hook consumers planning to start their holiday shopping early. Amazon first created Prime Day in 2015. The company held a 48-hour Prime Day event in July that boosted U.S. online sales 6.1%, resulting in $12.7 billion, according Adobe Analytics. The Prime Day sequel comes as retailers are bracing for a downbeat holiday spending season this year, according to the latest CNBC Supply Chain Survey. WATCH: At the end of the day Amazon has 'more levers to pull' than Apple
Organizations: Amazon, Deal, Adobe Analytics, CNBC Supply Chain Survey, Apple Locations: Robbinsville , New Jersey
Americans are expected to spend less this holiday season and seek out discounts, according to a new CNBC survey of retail logistics managers. For example, Home Depot (HD) expects overall sales and same-store sales to each decline between 2% and 5% in fiscal year 2023. TJX YTD mountain TJX Companies YTD performance In a separate research note, JPMorgan said TJX is best positioned to capture consumer trade-down demand. "We have the two best retailers for the moment," Jim Cramer said during the Investing Club's June Monthly Meeting Wednesday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Mary Dillon, Cowen, Richard Galanti, TJX, that's, Jim Cramer, We're, Jim Cramer's, Jim, TJ Maxx, Prince George's, Chip Somodevilla Organizations: CNBC, Costco, CNBC Supply Chain Survey, Fed, Wednesday, Management, JPMorgan, Shoppers, TJ, Getty Locations: Maxx, April's, Prince, Hyattsville , Maryland
Many retailers are still drawing down inventories now as peak season for orders begins. Based on the concerns about cutbacks by consumers, 77% of all items being ordered this holiday season are middle-price point items, including jackets. Traditionally, retail sector orders for peak season items are placed in late winter, or early spring. Trucking, ground, rail profit hits For ground logistical firms, rail companies, and short-haul trucking, moving holiday products during peak season is a lucrative and critical time of year for making money. The largest subgroup of survey respondents who predict placing higher freight orders (42%) pegged the increase in a range of 6%-10%.
Persons: Patrick T, Cleary, Stephen Lamar, Jon Gold Organizations: Fallon, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC Supply Chain Survey, Target, Walmart, CNBC, American Apparel & Footwear Association, American Footwear and Apparel Association, National Retail Federation, Council of Supply Chain Management, United National Consumer Suppliers, CNBC Fed Survey, Wall Street, Survey, Retailers, Chain, Labor Locations: West Coast, West
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC supply chain survey: 71% of said they are concerned the consumer will cut backCNBC's Lori Ann LaRocco reports on the results from an exclusive CNBC supply chain survey.
Persons: Lori Ann LaRocco Organizations: CNBC
Tugboats guide the Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) Mia container ship arriving at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California, U.S., on Wednesday, April 1, 2020. The number of vessels due to dock at the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach is increasing as labor slowdowns at West Coast port terminals have impacted supply chain operations, from trucks to rails and ocean carriers. Data from MarineTraffic shows that vessel problems are shifting from isolated to more pervasive. He said these vessels have yet to be loaded/offloaded and sent away, critical to make room for the next wave of vessels heading to Los Angeles. At the Port of Los Angeles, the CMA CGN Lyra has been at the dock since May 31; CMA CGM Amerigo Vespucci has been there since June 1.
Persons: Adil Ashiq, Lyra, Amerigo Vespucci Organizations: Mediterranean Shipping Co, Port, Marine Exchange, Southern, Vessel Traffic Service, North, MarineTraffic, MSC, CNBC, Tesla, CMA, Ports Locations: Port of Los Angeles, Los Angeles , California, U.S, Long, West Coast, Port of Long, Southern California, Los Angeles, LA, North America, of Los Angeles, Europe, Port of Oakland
Aerial view of containers and cargo ships at the Port of Los Angeles on Jan. 19, 2022 in San Pedro, California. Union Pacific is no longer accepting exports or empty containers at its Denver rail terminal destined for the Port of Los Angeles, a proactive move that reflects the supply chain issues that have arisen due to ongoing West Coast port labor issues. That is critical for food and agriculture shipments, where products can spoil — the U.S. agriculture industry uses the West Coast predominantly for its goods. The Port of Los Angeles is the nation's busiest port, processing $440 billion in cargo value per year. Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary BNSF and Union Pacific are the railroads servicing the West Coast ports.
Persons: Paul Brashier Organizations: Port, San Pedro , California ., San Pedro , California . Union Pacific, CNBC, Ocean, CMA, Pacific, Union Pacific, Berkshire Hathaway, BNSF, ITS Logistics, Pacific Maritime Association, Oakland, Truckers, Marine Services, Maersk Locations: Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California, San Pedro , California . Union, Denver, West Coast, Los Angeles, East Coast, Long, U.S, Seattle, OOCL, COSCO Shipping, Sealand, Evergreen
The decrease negatively impacts earnings for both trucking and rail where revenue is generated by moving freight. Ocean freight orders are a leading indicator of train and trucking earnings since 90% of the world's trade moves by water. This is one of three key supply chain charts that are signaling more financial potholes for trucking and rail companies. West Coast ports have been losing trade to both the East Coast ports and Gulf ports as a result of prolonged labor negotiations, though union representatives indicated last week a "tentative agreement" had been reached, but no details were provided. Trucking is needed for both container pick up at the ocean terminals and rail ramps.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC supply chain survey: 36 percent think inventories will normalize in second half of 2023CNBC's Lori Ann LaRocco reports on the results from an exclusive CNBC supply chain survey.
But uncertainty about inventory management is significant, with almost one-quarter (23%) of supply chain managers saying they are not sure when gluts will be worked off. The supply chain pressures will be among the factors that weigh on quarterly numbers. Manufacturing orders and the economic outlook Recent data on manufacturing has shown a deterioration in the economy, with the ISM Manufacturing index in contraction level based on March data released this week. "This survey confirms that we remain in an era of serious supply chain cost-to-serve challenges," Baxa said. FreightWaves and ITS Logistics are CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data providers.
watch nowAnother wave of Covid infections in China is the biggest fear for supply chain managers, but those whose companies were impacted by the first pandemic wave are optimistic the impact will be short-lived. Reduction in workforce is a major factor in the CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map for China, with heavy congestion at the ports. ContainerX, a major platform for container logistics, said its data shows 73% of supply chain officials expect a disruption after Lunar New Year. One of the biggest lessons learned during the pandemic by manufacturers and supply chain executives was to understand tier two, three, and four suppliers at a deeper level. CNBC's Supply Chain Heat Map shows how the weaker global economic conditions are influencing U.S.- China shipping routes.
CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesThe surge in Covid-19 cases in China is impacting the completion of manufacturing orders, according to CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data. "The container pickup, loading, and drayage (trucking) are also affected as all businesses are facing the impacts of COVID. Three major ports across China are experiencing supply chain delivery problems because of Covid, according to the note. "The booking cancellation is increasing as many factories can't operate properly due to a lot of workers getting invested with Covid," the report said. As a result of the Covid impact on trucking, MarineTraffic is seeing a slowdown in port productivity in Shanghai.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Supply Chain Survey: 61% percent say supply chain still not 'normal'CNBC's Lori Ann Larocco joins CNBC's "Power Lunch" to discuss a new CNBC Survey that details how supply chain executives feels about the state of the U.S. supply chain.
According to ITS Logistics which monitors rail cargo trends, the volume of freight moving out of the East Coast doubles that of the West Coast. East Coast ports making major investments East Coast ports like Georgia, Virginia and Maryland have been increasing their investment to accommodate the increase in rail capacity. "CSX continues to see the East Coast ports as a growth opportunity as volumes shift from congested West coast gateways," said Cindy Schild, CSX spokesperson. West Coast port declinewatch nowCargo volumes on the West Coast remained soft at the Port of Los Angeles in November, which saw a 21% decrease year over year in volumes. While the East Coast gains are significant, there was a "leveling" off of imports detected on the East Coast in November, according to port TEU data from the CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map.
There's less than 2% upside at the high end of his year-end S & P 500 price target of 4,000 to 4,150. Citi cuts price target on Club holding Salesforce (CRM) to $164 per share from $170 but keeps neutral rating. Deutsche Bank downgrades Starbucks (SBUX) to hold from buy but increases price target to $106 per share from $100. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) price target raised to $548 per share to $511 at Barclays, which also keeps its overweight rating. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
U.S. manufacturing orders in China are down 40 percent, according to the latest CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data. HLS expects most carriers to extend their West Coast rates until December 14, holding at $1,300-$1,400 per forty-foot equivalent containers (FEU). The 2M Alliance of Maersk and MSC has suspended almost half of its U.S. West Coast services for December. is also impacting Vietnam, which has been booming as a manufacturing hub as more trade moved away from China. Canceled ocean sailings bound for Vietnam are up 50% for December.
Earlier this week, the Port of Los Angeles posted its lowest level of October since 2009. "Firstly, shippers are still avoiding the West Coast to mitigate the risk of labor strikes at LA and Long Beach. According to Project44 data, total vessel TEU capacity deployed from Europe to the East Coast is up 15.5% compared to Oct 2021. CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map providers warned in the summer and fall of a decrease in manufacturing orders which has impacted the volume of shipping. The lesser container volumes are now being seen off the ports across the East Coast, including New York and New Jersey.
"As shipping lines reduce their vessel calls in the form of blank sailings, this reduces the capacity for outbound volumes. Sea-Intelligence wrote in its recent blank sailings report that it has detected some unannounced cancellations for the calendar-year period of weeks 42-52 in the past two weeks. "Blank sailings have been ramped up drastically on the Transpacific, but not so much on Asia-Europe," said Alan Murphy, CEO at Sea-Intelligence. On Asia-North Europe routes, Sea-Intelligence is only seeing an additional six blank sailings, and on Asia-Mediterranean routes an increase of four blank sailings. The weekly average of vessels waiting this week is 14, waiting for an average of 6.3 days.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Port of Bremerhaven, the main roll on/roll off port in Germany and one of the largest automobile hubs in the world, is experiencing gridlock. He said car imports into Bremerhaven from the U.S. and Mexico are operating on a timeline of months. Bremerhaven is Europe's fourth-largest containership port, with annual capacity over 5 million TEU [twenty-foot equivalent unit] containers. Another UK strike nearsAt the Port of Liverpool in the U.K., a fourth strike is set for November 14-21 if no deal with port management is reached. Braun told CNBC that since these strikes are well organized there is time in advance to plan and circumvent the port, diverting trade elsewhere.
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